Its been quite sometime since I wrote something about politics, now with Lok Sabha Elections being imminent, I thought I could share my thoughts. Very populistic Railway and Finance budgets this year, this probably would make Congress popular among people. With memories being very short, its a good ploy by the government to win some popular votes. Manmohan Singh's government need to be given credit too for their performance. With the communists feeling very uncomfortable with Nuke deal and also their politics is also losing ground as they have aligned with Congress and for years they have been thriving in politics only by playing it against Congress. BJP also is upbeat after its victory in Gujarat and also having put a positive step in all the states to sort out all the faction issues.
Coming to Tamil Nadu politics, UPA is a grand alliance and even though everyone has been through discomfort, for want of clinging to power, they have adjusted with each other uncomfortably. So in all likelihood there may be some realignment for this election. Based on the events happening I feel that Congress and PMK might be feeling betrayed by DMK for not having being given a place in the TamilNadu Ministry. PMK stayed back in the alliance for the simple reason that Dr. Anbumani's place in the Central Government will need to be given up. Congress was not able to show their displeasure as their Central Government would be under threat if they do so. On the other hand ADMK does not have much to lose as they dont have anyone apart from MDMK.
With Captain Vijaykanth's DMDK doing well in wooing the youngsters and the general voters towards them, in all likelihood I feel that there would be realignments in the State politics. In the interest of the Minority Government that is in place in Tamil Nadu, DMK would not want to lose any of its partners, but they also know that they would not have the same negotiating power, if they dont repeat the same performance as last time, which is winning all the forty seats, which I feel is very difficult. Many would be surprised about Sarath's party, though I feel that he would be happy to ensure that he gets the caste votes that he is trying to get, but looks like he is trying to get the youth on his side. These votes are the ones that is solidly behind Vijaykanth, and now DMK's youth conference, ADMK's youth pasarais are also the efforts to get the same votes. Some even feel that it is DMK's gameplan to make Sarathkumar an alternative to Vijaykanth. In this background Congress leader Arunkumar's meeting with Vijaykanth aboard a plane boars a lot of significance.
So, I strongly feel that Tamil Nadu would see a three way contest with DMK / DPI / Communist Parties forming one alliance and ADMK / PMK / and may be BJP forming the second alliance and third alliance would be formed with Vijaykanth / Congress / MDMK / Sarath and incase Marans' patch up work does not work, they may also align with this alliance. Vijaykanth and MDMK may come together because of a caste equation. Congress is suffocated with both the Dravidian parties as they have never been respected as a significant partner, thats the reason Congress wants to go to Vijaykanth to get some respect and probably a share in the government incase they win, but I feel that they would be disappointed as they may only end up being a secondary partner. Anyway it just turns out to be very interesting for someone who is following all these.
Last but not the least you can see PMK is trying to come out of the Caste politics and trying to get a larger vote base by being a very vocal supporter of Tamil Language usage, infact they have been doing a great job through their channel Makkal TV. Best wishes for them.
Before I close, just wanted to conclude with a news item I read this morning that Rahul Gandhi has hired ' Dale Carnegie Management Consultants to train the Congress youth members, looks like a step in the right direction.
